In a way that combines the best practices of the Soviet era- stealth, deception and intrigue with the best practices of its Russian successor state- brawn, brain and courage, Putin has succeeded in catching the West unawares. While the Americans, the Germans, the French and the British were toasting champagne for having wrested another East European country out of Russia's sphere, Putin was silently working behind the scenes to create a situation which is now being called the return of the cold war.
Kiev exploded into protests once President Yanukovich at the last moment backed out of accords that would have brought Ukraine a step closer to the EU, choosing instead the massive waivers that Russia was strategically offering. Kiev protests were nothing new- protests are now a standard feature of almost all modern nation states- Kiev was hosting protests in Maidan square, just as Dhaka had witnessed its own in Shahbag square, Cairo in Tahrir Square, Bahrain in Pearl Square and so on and so forth. This is now a routine internal matter of any nation. However, Ukraine was to be the prized possession of the West, another humiliating blow to post Soviet Russia. And hence the West intervened- High profile visits by diplomats and statements by Presidents and Prime Ministers. Western portrayal of events in Kiev showed that a revolution was brewing against the unpopular rule of Yanukovich who deserved what he was getting.
Well, Yanukovich wasn't exactly the most popular President that Ukraine had ever had. He had been ousted from power once earlier during the Orange Revolution. But he had inched back to power primarily because the forces that had led the Orange Revolution had dissipated their energies in fighting each other and because he had a genuine following in the Russian speaking majority in the Eastern part of Ukraine. But now in sort of a deja vu, people were clamoring for his ouster once again. After days of blowing hot and blowing cold, offering sops and asking police to intervene, Yanukovich realized that his days were numbered. He simply fled.
The transitional government that took power in Kiev immediately turned to EU for support and membership. In an befuddling move, it also rescinded a 2012 law that made Ukrainian and Russian the official languages of the state. Now, it was time for the Russian majority and industrialized East to explode. As Putin watched, undoubtedly with a smile on his face, Russian speaking Ukraine disowned the new national government in Kiev. In Crimea, pro Russian troops took control of the autonomous territory that Khrushchev, for reasons best known to him, had transferred from Russia to Ukraine. Putin, subtly aided the process. Tourist protestors crossed in from Russia to Eastern Ukraine to protest against the fascist dispensation in Kiev that was hell bent on obliterating Russian speakers in Ukraine. From Donetsk to Luhansk, From Kharkiv to Sevastopol, protestors took over Government buildings and unfurled the Russian tricolor.
Crimean Parliament in the meanwhile called for a referendum to reunite Crimea with Mother Russia. Suddenly, the West woke up. Realizing that the tables had completely turned against them, Obama, Merkel and the Who's who of the West frantically engaged with Putin and his administration, coaxing, cajoling and threatening him to respect Ukraine's territorial integrity. Putin on his part merely reiterated his stated position to come to the aid of Russian speakers anywhere in the world.
So that is where things stand as of now. It looks probable that Crimea will vote for integration into Russia. It seems probable that Kerry and Obama will go berserk. It seems probable that sanctions and counter sanctions will be liberally applied. But one thing is certain, Russia has risen again!!
