People power is back. And it is rocking the steady boat of one of the most time tested regimes of our times. By the look of it, Mr. Hosni Mubarak's day of judgment has dawned and the masses are baying for his blood. Almost 30 years ago, similar scenes were witnessed in another part of the Islamic world. Agitating Iranians, young and old, forced the Shah to flee and put a full stop to 2500 uninterrupted years of Persian Monarchy, installing in its place, a rabidly religious regime that has contributed in its own way in making the world a difficult place to live.
So, will Egypt go the Iran way? It looks unlikely for now. But if you begin to draw comparisons between Iran in 1979 and Egypt in 2011, resemblance is uncanny. Replace El Baradei, the liberal, internationally acclaimed IAEA chairman who has become the unofficial (but not universal) representative of the Egyptian protestors with Mehdi Bazargan, the last liberal Prime Minister of Iran, before he was elbowed out by the Ayatollah. Replace the turbaned shiite clerics of Iran led by Ayatollah Khomeini with the Muslim Brotherhood, which has emerged as the only organized body capable of controlling and directing the protesters.
Iran was a thoroughly westernized modern dictatorship, not unlike Egypt today, with a dark underbelly. While hundreds of Iranians lived their lives as modern western individuals, millions continued to cling to the Islamic principles which defined them. Hundreds in Iran, close to the Shah benefitted from his reforms and programs while millions continued to grumble and abuse the Shah. In Egypt, too, a tiny clique close to the Mubaraks continues to use and abuse powers, while millions of unemployed and frustrated youth continue to pelt stones and chant 'Death to Mubarak' slogans.
The loss of Iran to the Mullahs was a big setback to the West. I don't think the West has, till date, been able to recover from that shock. The loss of Egypt to the Muslim Brotherhood will complete the defeat of Western ideals and principles in the Near East. The strategic nature of Egypt can be understood by the fact that Egypt is the only country in the Arab World to have official diplomatic relations with Israel and the only country with which Israel has a treaty of any sort. The Camp David Accords in 1978 were the first step to establishing long lasting peace in the region, the loss of Egypt to the Muslim Brotherhood will be the first nail in the coffin of Israel and the West.
Tunisia threw out Zine el Abedine. Yemen is on its way to banish Mr. Saleh. And even as I write, it seems that ordinary Egyptians have finally won. Mubarak, it seems has quit the presidency and handed over power to the army. The US, it seems has learnt from the past. It chose to support democracy over its own narrow interests. It remains to be seen, if this would reap handsome dividends.
People Power has won once again. Whether Egypt would go the Iran way is still a wait and watch game.
