Frozen Conflicts

The latest term to enter the spehere of geopolitical strategic thought is 'Frozen Conflicts'. One must thank
the Russians for having introduced this term to the international consciousness. With the re-integration of Crimea with Russia, aided obviously by Russian military might, the West is now carefully looking at various such territories/places that were at one time hotbeds of strife and violence, but have since then lapsed into peace and quiet, without any apparent setllement of issues that had caused the strife/violence initially. Post Soviet realms are full of such conflicts, ranging from Eastern Ukraine or Novorossiya to Transnistria on the Moldova-Ukraine border to Abkhazia and South Ossetia on the Russo-Georgian border to Nagorno-Karabakh in Armenia and Azerbaijan.

All these disputes are frozen in time. The inhabitants of these territories have forgotten the violence that they had experienced some 20 odd years ago and have now established a modus vivendi for themselves. Some like Transnistria now claim to be sovereign  and independent, while others such as Abkhazia are de facto independent.

One must dig a little deeper to understand how a frozen conflict would serve the strategic interests of a superpower. For this, let us examine the peculiar case of Russo-Georgian relations.

Georgia had been a part of the Russian empire for many years before the Bolsheviks took over. In fact, Georgia was one of the original Soviet republics as the Trans-caucasian republic when the USSR was founded in 1922.Georgia's greatest claim to fame in the USSR was that it was the homeland of Joseph Stalin- the butcher of millions of Soviet citizens. In fact, the Georgians mutinied in 1956, when Khrushchev denounced Stalin. Anyways, the invincible Soviet Union imploded in 1990 and Georgia emerged as an independent nation under for the first time that anyone to could remember. Georgia's strongman was Gorbachev's former foreign minister Eduard Shevardnadze. Immediately after Georgia's independence, the northern, predominantly non-Georgian territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia rose up against Georgia and achieved de facto independence, although calm was restored with Russian intervention in the early 90s. The conflict was considered as more or less settled with no side disturbing the status quo.

In 2005, following the Rose revolution in Tbilsi, Shevardnadze was ousted and a new pro-American president, Mikhail Saakashvili was sworn into power. Saakashvili immediately made several pro-West moves including applying for NATO membership. Nationalist, as he was, Saakashvili also aimed at restoring the unity of Georgia by taking back Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Russians, in the meanwhile, under the Putin-Medvedev team had turned away from the defeatist Yeltsin era and were establishing themselves as Nationalists in their own right. Citizens of both Abkhazia and South Ossetia had been granted Russian passports, essentially transforming the character of the conflict from a Georgian affair to a Russo-Georgian affair.

In 2008, Georgian attempts to reclaim the lost territories were met by Russians arming the South Ossetians and Abkhazians. In a matter of days, Russian troops poured into Georgia to counter the Georgian military offensive. Given the overwhelming military superiority of Russia, and the fact that they were supported by the Abkhazian and South Ossetian military, Georgian military was humbled in a matter of days, before the international community rushed in to mediate peace. Once again, the status quo was imposed. Once again, South Ossetia and Abkhazia were de facto independent under Russian tutelage.

International experts believe, that the 2008 South Ossetia conflict between Georgia and Russia was Russia's way of indicating its displeasure with the Rose revolution and the cosying up of Saakashvili administration with the US. Some also considered the Russian offensive as Putin's revenge for Kosovo. In a matter of days, the Russians, strategically, revived a frozen conflict, with Georgian aid no doubt and used it to their advantage to topple Saakashvili's  apple cart.

What Russia is doing now in Ukraine is no different. As Ukraine continues to edge towards the EU and NATO, Russia will up the ante, probably going so far as to threaten the existence of the Ukrainian state. All frozen conflicts are not necessarily in countries far far away. China continues to use the border dispute with India and maritime disputes with other Asian countries from time to time to its strategic advantage.

Coming back to the modern Geo-strategic thought, all conflicts need not be resolved. Some should be left in the deep freezer. God only knows when they might come in handy.